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General election bet of the day: turnout will be higher than last time

8th April 2010

Because for the first time since 1992 the outcome is not a foregone conclusion, interest levels will mount steadily as voters feel that their individual votes really could matter

Generally within a day or so of an election being declared the media narrative becomes that the public are not interested, with associated dire predictions about the number of voters.

This affects the betting, with odds on higher turnout levels edging upwards to price levels which three weeks later look like remarkable value.

Because for the first time since 1992 the outcome is not a foregone conclusion, interest levels will mount steadily as voters feel that their individual votes really could matter.

This might not push turnout to the 77% of 1992 but it is going to be much higher than the 60% or so of the past two elections.

Even with the Commons expenses issue, my guess is that it could get into the 70s and I like the 9-2 that's available from Bet365 on it being greater than 70%.

• Mike Smithson is the founder and editor of politicalbetting.com

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