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Hamish McRae: The Treasury's predictions of recovery might just be right

8th May 2009

A turning point for the UK economy in the autumn? Most commentators now feel that the latest data coming through – in particular the purchasing managers' survey earlier this week – does suggest that some sort of economic recovery is in sight. That would square with the recovery in equities, which began in early March, for if that was indeed the low point of this cycle, then you would expect an economic bottom about six months later.

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