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Stephen King: Economic forecasters could learn something from meteorologists

20th April 2009

Economists would make hopeless weather forecasters. Weather forecasters, at least those who worry about the British weather, are not keen on extrapolation. They know only too well that today's sunny spells could easily be followed by tomorrow's wet and windy conditions. While economists have learnt some things from meteorologists – notably the need to adjust data for seasonality – there is still a strong desire to believe that economies head blindly in one direction or another. How many times have economists correctly forecast a turning point in economic activity? Not many, I would guess.

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